Future Forward: The Next 250 Years of Coin Collecting

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

This article is sponsored by CAC Grading, the collectors’ choice, inspiring confidence through accurate and consistent coin grading.

Ever since King Croesus of Lydia struck the world’s first coins, currency has been a vital part of global trade and culture. For as long as coins have circulated, individuals have collected them and stowed them away to preserve history. Today, 250 years after the founding of the United States, numismatics faces a turning point, as digital technology and the decline of physical currency will result in a change in how we collect. The next 250 years will be an exciting, transformative period for the hobby. Let’s envision the future of coin collecting. 

10-20 Years From Now: 2036-46

One of the biggest and most immediate changes will be the way technology, specifically artificial intelligence (AI), will reshape numismatics. As of 2018, Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS) has incorporated “artificial intelligence and machine learning” into its Gold Shield program. PCGS specifically states that AI assists and helps graders speed up the process, primarily with counterfeit detection. In the coming decades, AI grading will expand and support graders to streamline the grading process. This could lower costs and wait times, while improving accuracy. AI is an exciting prospect in grading that could revolutionize the industry.

AI is an exciting prospect in grading that could revolutionize the industry.

In addition to AI, numismatics as a whole has been slowly utilizing the digital age to its full potential. Since the early 2000s, digital technology has changed the human experience. As for numismatics, the introduction of digital marketplaces and auctions, virtual clubs, and access to up-to-date information and pricing has changed the hobby. In recent years, the ANA has introduced the eLearning Academy and the Young Numismatists of America (YNA) club, allowing people to access a plethora of information or meet with other hobbyists across the world. Such technology has unlocked a new way of communication and will give numismatics more reach. In the following years, digital technology will become standardized. Digital technology will continue to pave the way for AI-assisted grading, digital numismatic databases, virtual clubs, digital marketplaces, and educational platforms. These advancements will make technology an essential part of numismatics.

50 Years From Now: 2076

Looking 50 years into the future, not only will digital technology assist collectors, but it will fundamentally transform the hobby’s core foundations. AI technology will be able to calculate grades with such precision that the current Sheldon Scale will be obsolete. As evident even today, grading companies have already added the “+” or “*” symbol to certain grades, showing that collectors want more precise standards. There are currently 30 numerical grades a coin can receive. As AI utilizes multi-sensor technology, it can detect aspects like metal composition and conduct 3-D surface scans, while still rapidly factoring many of these details into a grade. Because of such precision, the Sheldon Scale will require an overhaul. Although this change might be protested, it will allow for greater accuracy and full capabilities of machine learning. 

Fifty years from now, it is likely that nearly all payments will be made digitally.

As AI continues to make strides in grading, the use of coins and paper currency in the economy continues to decline. Because of the rise of digital payment methods and credit cards, cash will no longer be favorable to use in transactions. In 2017 cash transactions made up 32 percent of all transactions in the United States. By 2023 cash made up 16 percent of all transactions. It is projected that by next year, it will decline to 11 percent. This is further predicted to drop into single digits in the following decades. Fifty years from now, it is likely that nearly all payments will be made digitally, especially as 80 percent of Americans already prefer to use contactless payment methods. 

100 Years From Now: 2126

By now, coins have been rarely used for decades, but governments and mints across the world are slow to adapt. A century from today, they will finally begin to phase out coins, potentially focusing more on commemoratives that target collectors. Some governments might even abolish the legal-tender status of cash. This will be a major change for numismatics. Throughout all this, it is highly likely that the hobby will continue to adapt and potentially even flourish as supply ceases and demand skyrockets. 

Current-day ultra-rarities will become almost unattainable.

As demand increases, current-day ultra-rarities will become almost unattainable. Because of this, most high-value collectibles will be either held in museums or by groups of collectors. Although basically nonexistent in numismatics today (with exceptions like the Eureka gold bar), fractional ownership might seep into the hobby. Popular among art collectors, this method allows multiple people to purchase a share of a famous masterpiece for as little as $20. 

250 Years From Now: 2276

Looking 250 years out, the rapid increase in prices coupled with the rise in precision manufacturing will collide, resulting in hyperrealistic forgeries. Counterfeits will adapt to newer technology, such as 3-D imaging and CNC (computer numerical control) machining to produce high-quality fakes. As the market climbs and manufacturing costs decrease, such counterfeits will continue to plague the market. Centuries from now, counterfeits will become so sophisticated that even the experts will not be able to distinguish them. This will require alternate methods of determining authenticity. One such way would be maintaining an unbroken record of provenance for each individual coin. Pedigrees tracing back to the pre-digital age will be just as important as the coin itself. 

Pedigrees tracing back to the pre-digital age will be just as important as the coin itself. 

Although coin production halted years ago, mints around the world have by now repurposed themselves into minting commemoratives for collectors. A potentially intriguing option would be the minting of coins on lunar or martian soil. Assuming technology continues to progress, permanent human habitation on other solar bodies is inevitable. Demand for such coins has been proven in the past. Notable examples include Sacagawea pattern dollars that were flown into space that sold for over $500,000 last year. Likewise, during the Apollo era, medals were brought on missions that later realized millions. Commemoratives will continue to provide collectors a constant supply to ease demand.

Ultimately, the future of numismatics will not be defined by the loss of currency, but by how the hobby continues to adapt to technological advancements to preserve its history. Over the next 250 years, the hobby will witness significant change, heavily driven by technological progress. Advancements such as AI grading, fractional ownership, and the digital shift will redefine how future generations collect. 

Sign up for the monthly Reading Room Rundown to receive more great stories!