AI Coin Grading
The coin-grading industry has transformed remarkably from its humble beginnings, evolving from what skeptics once deemed a fad into a cornerstone of numismatics. Amid these changes, many continue to raise valid points about the drawbacks of the service. Claims of inconsistent graders, costly submission fees, and attempts to create an artificial market through inflating coin grades have become as pervasive in coin collecting as the grading companies themselves. Complaints like these have merit; coin grading is expensive, and there is a strong possibility of inconsistencies due to human error. In the past, however, the benefits of coin grading have always outweighed these potential downsides. This may no longer be the case with the advent of artificial intelligence.
The potential for an app to accurately grade and value coins in seconds is becoming more plausible each year and, if created, would make the hobby much more accessible to novice collectors and consumers. Suddenly, anyone with access to a mobile device could easily grade coins, removing one of the significant barriers to the hobby. If one walks into a coin show today, they will likely hear a very different narrative. Many of today’s dealers and collectors frequently voice concerns about the prospect of artificial intelligence (AI) grading coins. Some believe there would be no viable market for an app like this, and no consumers would be willing to pay for the service of having their phone evaluate coins. In reality, the market for this is quite substantial.
A Wider Reach
The U.S. Mint estimates 147 million coin collectors in the United States. Although this number does represent a large group of extremely casual collectors, a coin-grading app would appeal to this group most. For those who inherited coins from family members or even those who occasionally find interesting coins in their change, an app that evaluates coins would help these consumers get the value of these items and garner interest in the hobby. In addition, Professional Coin Grading Service estimates that 90 percent of viable coins in the United States remain ungraded, largely due to their value, making sending them in for traditional grading prohibitive. AI coin grading could help provide a lower-cost option for the huge market of low- to mid-value coins.
Advancing Technology
Others claim that an AI system could never accurately estimate a coin’s grade. This is admittedly the strongest argument against such a system, and the technology required to perform this process would have to be extremely advanced by today’s standards. However, this same argument was made for other uses of artificial intelligence, like facial recognition. Once shotty and inaccurate, facial recognition has evolved into a powerful security tool. Systems in current mobile phones use cameras and built-in sensors to create a three-dimensional scan of a user’s face. A similar process could be used on coins. These image scans would then be compared against a database of millions of already-graded coins, and a reasonably accurate grade could be given. Even toning, which many claim impossible for computers to judge, could be factored into grades through an algorithm of desirable/undesirable color combinations, lusters, etc.
The potential for an app to accurately grade and value coins in seconds is
becoming more plausible.
Around the Corner
It’s highly likely that a system like this will debut in the next few years and is arguably needed for the coin-collecting hobby to sustain its growth. Coin collecting has experienced relatively little change over the past century, even as technology, demographics, and other hobbies like trading cards have adapted to the present. Part of this lies in the beauty of the hobby and the fact that one can collect original small pieces of history.
However, without some changes, numismatics face an uncertain future as younger generations become less interested in coins. This trend has been seen in other industries, like retail stores. As digitization occurred, stores that adapted to online ordering and other advancements continued to experience growth. On the other hand, stores like ToysRUs and GameStop that did not embrace change failed in their markets.
Admittedly, coin collecting is in a much better position. The ANA alone provides many programs like Summer Seminar, National Coin Week, and young numismatist outreach. It has done a wonderful job of maintaining interest in coins. But as coin grading becomes even more ingrained in the hobby, greater efforts must be made to interest the public in numismatics, even amidst the complicated nature of coin valuations. A system that provides an easy entry into the hobby through simple-to-use coin identification and grading could achieve this. With the right support, it could be utilized to propel coin collecting from a niche hobby into one with an outstanding collector base.