A “Black Swan” for the Libertad Series

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The largest U.S. distributor of Mexican Libertad coins told the Reading Room that the iconic coin series will face a “black swan” event in 2025. In financial terms, a black swan event is rare, unpredictable, and highly impactful, like 9/11 or the 2008 financial crisis.

This time, the term refers to Banco de México’s decision to drastically limit the mintages of all silver Libertad versions in 2025—levels that will stun most collectors and silver bullion investors. Until now, such low numbers were reserved for collector pieces like proofs. Compounding the surprise, no gold Libertads will be minted in 2025.

A Perfect Storm

Pat Stovall of Lois and Don Bailey and Son Numismatic Services in Houston, Texas, recently shared this information. His mother, Lois Bailey, and the late Don Bailey are among the most respected experts on Mexican coinage.

Stovall described a “perfect storm” behind the historically low 2025 mintages. It began with economic and market uncertainty, which tightened the coin market over the past two years compared to the pandemic era, when sales were stronger.

Silver remains popular but has trailed gold in performance for years. The silver-to-gold ratio, long expected to narrow, has instead widened to roughly 100:1—gold’s price is now 100 times that of silver.

At the same time, many buyers have less discretionary income and have scaled back on coin purchases. Adding to the challenges is the Mexican Mint’s surplus inventory of 2023 and 2024 silver issues. Recent banking regulations have also made it harder to acquire new reserves, further limiting the volume available for 2025.

Historic 2025 Mintages

Here are the complete, unprecedentedly low 2025 mintages—shared here publicly for the first time:

Brilliant Uncirculated (BU):

• 5 oz: 200
• 2 oz: 200
• 1 oz: 300
• ½ oz: 100
• ¼ oz: 100
• 1/10 oz: 200
• 1/20 oz: 200

Proof:

• 5 oz: 400
• 2 oz: 300

Reverse Proof:

• 5 oz: 600
• 2 oz: 300
• 1 oz: 1,900

5-Piece Silver Libertad Proof Set: 150 sets

Stovall confirmed that he asked Mexican officials to repeat the mintage for the 1-ounce BU coin—only 300—to ensure it was correct. Social media posts have mistakenly claimed it must be 300,000, unaware of the entire series’ ultra-low mintages.

He expects each distributor will receive only a small fraction of the 2025 coins. Given their scarcity and the heightened risk of counterfeits, Stovall anticipates that most will be graded before sale. He strongly recommends grading raw pieces before buying or selling.

Context & Key Dates

Until now, the key date for the 1-ounce silver Libertad was 1998, with a mintage of 67,000. The series’ crown jewel is the 1999 5-ounce silver proof with just 100 minted. Valued at $5,700 in the 2015 edition of Mexican Money by Lois and Don Bailey, it has since sold for $15,000 or more.

As for the 2025 1-ounce BU, Stovall believes it could command thousands—possibly $5,000 to $8,000, or even higher in Mint State-70. He said that when he provided ChatGPT with mintages and past sale data, it predicted that price range.

Stovall doesn’t expect values of existing key-date coins to decline. Their prices, built over decades, will likely remain stable. Demand continues to outstrip supply, especially as the collector base grows.

Among the few 2025 issues collectors might reasonably obtain is the 1-ounce reverse proof, limited to 1,900. Although that version has seen low mintages before, demand will be fierce due to the scarcity of the rest of the lineup.

Looking ahead, Stovall anticipates lower-than-usual mintages for 2026 as well, though not as extreme. He expects other distributors to draw down the 2023–24 inventory to meet demand.

Collector Reactions

Initial reactions from Libertad collectors to the 2025 numbers have been summed up in one word: Wow.

Many fear gaps in their collections that may never be affordable to fill—especially if the 2025 1-ounce BU hits $10,000. One collector even said he plans to sell his entire collection because of it.

Only time will reveal the broader impact of this unprecedented move by Banco de México. As Stovall put it:

“There’s never a dull moment in Mexican coin collecting.”